How to Set Smart Goals for Vasaloppet

For many skiers taking on Vasaloppet, the main goal is simply to reach the finish line — which is an incredible achievement in itself. For a small few, the dream is to win. Between these two extremes is a large group of skiers who love pushing their limits. Maybe you’ve already completed Vasaloppet once or several times and have checked off the goal of reaching Mora. In this article, we explore how to think about setting your next meaningful goal.

Why Goal-Setting in Vasaloppet Is Different

Setting goals for Vasaloppet is not as straightforward as in a running race, where performance-driven athletes can target a specific finishing time. While time goals are possible, snow and weather conditions can quickly crush that dream. Vasaloppet finishing time doesn’t always reflect true performance. Historically, the winning time has varied by more than an hour between different years.

We also see a trend toward shorter winning times on average, though it remains to be seen whether this trend continues. The recent fluor wax ban might also influence future results.

SMART Goals and Performance vs. Result Goals

In personal development, goals are often described as SMART — specific, measurable, realistic, accepted, and time-bound. Goals can also be divided into performance goals and result goals. Performance goals depend on your own execution, while result goals depend on your performance relative to others. Johan Olsson discusses this extensively in his book “Våga välja eget spår,” written with Anna Olsson and mental coach Stig Wiklund. They strongly recommend focusing on performance goals — and we agree.

Why Time Is a Poor Measurement in Vasaloppet

The big challenge is how to set performance goals when finishing time doesn’t reflect actual performance. Slow conditions can make a time goal completely unrealistic. That’s why power — expressed in watts — is a much better key metric. Skiers using Skisens poles can target a specific average watt value that is independent of snow conditions. See for example our recent newsletter: Hitta träffen i stakningen med Skisens.

Placement Goals Can Be More Realistic

For those who don’t measure power, placement can be a practical alternative. Even though placement technically depends on others, the large field size makes it more statistical and therefore more usable as a performance benchmark. An even smarter strategy is to relate your placement to your starting wave — for example, aiming to move up one wave. Historically, only about 5–10% of skiers in waves 1–4 manage to move up one wave, and moving up two waves is extremely rare.

The Popular Medal Goal

Another common Vasaloppet goal is to earn a medal — finishing within 150% of the winner’s time. Historically, the number of medals has averaged around 2,400 per year, but the variation is large — from nearly 4,000 medals in 2007 to just over 1,000 in 2024. Recently, fewer medals have been awarded, possibly due to higher pace driven by Ski Classics pro teams.

Final Takeaway

Ultimately, only you can decide what the right Vasaloppet goal is for you. But we hope this perspective helps you analyze your performance, set smarter goals, and continue developing as a cross-country skier.