Vasaloppet Medal Dream: What the Data Says About Earning the Prestigious Performance Medal

Even though winter in southern Sweden is still hesitant, we Vasaloppet skiers are increasingly turning our thoughts toward what, for many of us, is the year’s greatest athletic challenge. A common dream is to earn the Vasaloppet performance medal — a legendary benchmark among recreational skiers. Although the winning time has improved since the race first began in 1922, the challenge of finishing within the winner’s time plus 50% has remained.

When I skied my first Vasaloppet in 2011, the medal was one of three goals. The other two were simply to finish, and to go under six hours. I crossed the finish line in 5:53, achieving two of the three goals. Unfortunately, a certain Jörgen Brink completed the race in an astonishing 3:51, which meant I missed the medal by roughly six minutes.

Determined to earn the medal, I returned the following year. With one year of experience and better training, I finished in 5:01 and secured my medal — despite Jörgen Brink setting a new course record of 3:38. On the bus home, several of us discussed how 2012 had been a particularly tough year to earn the medal since the race was so fast. Never before had one needed to ski faster to qualify.

Do Fast Vasaloppet Years Make It Harder to Earn the Medal?

I began to question whether that assumption was actually true. Is it really harder to earn the medal in fast years? To find out, we analyzed all Vasaloppet results from 1980 onward. Nearly 100,000 medals have been distributed since then. Figure 1 shows the number of medals per year.

Figure 1. Number of medals awarded per year at Vasaloppet since 1980.

From the figure, you can see that fewer medals were awarded in 2011 compared to 2012 — despite 2012 being a faster race. You can also see that the number of medals awarded in 2012 was almost exactly 2,500, which also happens to be the average across all years. Interestingly, 1998 — another record-fast year — also saw nearly exactly 2,500 medals awarded. So far, there is no indication that fast years make earning the medal harder.

At the same time, Figure 1 shows that medal counts vary considerably year to year, suggesting that the medal requirement is not entirely performance-neutral. There is a slight trend toward smaller variations in recent decades compared to the 1980s. This may partly be due to skating being banned after 1987, which improves track consistency, and partly due to the organizers continually improving track maintenance despite weather variations. However, when it snows during the race — as in 2007 and 2019 — or when the tracks partially melt during the race — as in 2015 — little can be done.

Weather and Conditions Influence Medal Distribution — but Not Always as Expected

Most skiers agree that external conditions influence how many medals are awarded. But the direction of that influence is less clear. Both 2007 and 2019 were slow years due to snowfall. Yet the number of medals was drastically different. In 2007, a record number of medals were awarded, while in 2019 relatively few skiers earned one. Despite this, the perception persists that slow years make medals easier to earn.

To investigate further, we expanded Figure 1 to also include the winning time for each year since 1980.

Figure 2. Medal count and winning time for each Vasaloppet since 1980.

Figure 2 shows that the number of medals awarded has increased by roughly 20% since 1980. The trend-adjusted winning time has also improved by about 20 minutes. As expected, the data shows significant spread: the standard deviation is 670 medals and 22 minutes in winning time. Practically, this means a typical year will have between 1,900 and 3,200 medals awarded, and the winner will finish between 3:40 and 4:24 (normalized to today’s conditions).

Fast Years, Slow Years — and What the Numbers Actually Say

In the two record-fast years, 1998 and 2012, the race was completed in around 3:38 — and both years saw roughly 2,500 medals awarded, right at the long-term average. Likewise, in 1989 — the slowest modern year with a winning time of 5:09 — around 2,500 medals were awarded.

The lowest medal count since 1980 occurred in 1986, with only 1,306 medals awarded — the final year when freestyle was allowed. Other low-medal years include 1992 and 2015 with 1,398 and 1,564 medals respectively. These three low-medal years share one thing: the winning time was under four hours, meaning relatively fast races.

There are also years when earning a medal was significantly easier. In 1991 and 2007, nearly 4,000 skiers received medals — both slow years, supporting the theory that slow conditions may help. But this is not the whole explanation, as shown by counterexamples such as 1989 and 2019.

Is It Really Harder to Earn a Medal in Fast Vasaloppet Years?

In summary, the winning time alone does not strongly predict how many medals are awarded. Other factors seem more decisive, such as whether the front group pushes aggressively or conservatively, or whether conditions change significantly between the elite and the recreational field.

Last year was a slow year with a medal cutoff close to seven hours. Yet from a placement standpoint, earning a medal in 2019 was significantly harder than in the record-fast 2012. Across the past 20 years, the average placement required for a medal is around 2,500.

If you pick the right year, you might earn a medal with a placement as low as 4,000 — while in other years you may miss the medal even with a much better placement.

During the last 20 years, finishing within the top 2,000 has resulted in a medal nine times out of ten. This means skiers starting in wave 3 have a strong chance. Skiers in wave 4 also have a good chance, though they may need to overtake more athletes.

Those starting further back — but still dreaming of the medal — should take heart in this: persistence is rewarded. In four of the last 20 years, a placement around 3,000 was enough for the medal.

With this numerical deep dive, we wish you the best of luck in your training — and we hope that this year the stars align so you achieve your goal. In the weeks leading up to Vasaloppet, we will share more insights here, such as how difficult it is to reach a certain placement, move up a wave, and how much the winning time has improved over the decades.

/Dan